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| Cities experience elevated temperature, CO
2
, and nitrogen deposition decades ahead of the global average, such
that biological response to urbanization may predict response to future climate change. This hypothesis remains
untested due to a lack of complementary urban and long-term observations. Here, we examine the response of an
herbivore, the scale insect Melanaspis tenebricosa, to temperature in the context of an urban heat island, a series of
historical temperature fluctuations, and recent climate warming. We survey M. tenebricosa on 55 urban street trees
in Raleigh, NC, 342 herbarium specimens collected in the rural southeastern United States from 1895 to 2011, and
at 20 rural forest sites represented by both modern (2013) and historical samples. We relate scale insect abundance
to August temperatures and find that M. tenebricosa is most common in the hottest parts of the city, on historical
specimens collected during warm time periods, and in present-day rural forests compared to the same sites when
they were cooler. Scale insects reached their highest densities in the city, but abundance peaked at similar temper-
atures in urban and historical datasets and tracked temperature on a decadal scale. Although urban habitats are
highly modified, species response to a key abiotic factor, temperature, was consistent across urban and rural-forest
ecosystems. Cities may be an appropriate but underused system for developing and testing hypotheses about
biological effects of climate change. Future work should test the applicability of this model to other groups of
organisms | |
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