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| The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts an increase
in global temperatures of between 1.48C and 5.88C during the 21st century, as a result of
elevated CO2 levels. Using bioclimatic envelope models, we evaluate the potential impact
of climate change on the distributions and species richness of 120 native terrestrial nonvolant
European mammals under two of IPCC’s future climatic scenarios. Assuming
unlimited and no migration, respectively, our model predicts that 1% or 5–9% of European
mammals risk extinction, while 32–46% or 70–78% may be severely threatened
(lose > 30% of their current distribution) under the two scenarios. Under the no migration
assumption endemic species were predicted to be strongly negatively affected by future
climatic changes, while widely distributed species would be more mildly affected. Finally,
potential mammalian species richness is predicted to become dramatically reduced in the
Mediterranean region but increase towards the northeast and for higher elevations.
Bioclimatic envelope models do not account for non-climatic factors such as land-use,
biotic interactions, human interference, dispersal or history, and our results should therefore
be seen as first approximations of the potential magnitude of future climatic changes. | |
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