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| Rapid anthropogenic climate change is already affecting species distributions
and ecosystem functioning worldwide. We applied niche-based models to analyse
the impact of climate change on tree species and functional diversity in
Europe. Present-day climate was used to predict the distributions of 122 tree
species from different functional types (FT). We then explored projections of
future distributions under one climate scenario for 2080, considering two
alternative dispersal assumptions: no dispersal and unlimited dispersal. The
species-rich broadleaved deciduous group appeared to play a key role in the
future of different European regions. Temperate areas were projected to lose
both species richness and functional diversity due to the loss of broadleaved
deciduous trees. These were projected to migrate to boreal forests, thereby
increasing their species richness and functional diversity. Atlantic areas
provided an intermediate case, with a predicted reduction in the numbers of
species and occasional predicted gains in functional diversity. This resulted
from a loss in species within the broadleaved deciduous FT, but overall maintenance
of the group. Our results illustrate the fact that both species-specific
predictions and functional patterns should be examined separately in order to
assess the impacts of climate change on biodiversity and gain insights into
future ecosystem functioning. | |
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